In the last post I ended with a chart showing that while the healthy vaccinee effect appears to be artificially lowering death rates in the vaccinated, there was a trend suggesting that something odd was going on towards the lower end of the age range we were looking at (over 50’s).
Excellent analysis - but I think you were a bit minimalist on describing your methods. The ONS report doesn't show 5 year age groups and plots out age-stratified results by month. I eventually found Table 9 in the spreadsheet in section six, and then verified that it was the source for your graph by running the math.
The report's suggestion that "prioritisation of the clinically vulnerable" accounts for this effect is not totally far-fetched. If there was a monthly breakdown of the 5 year age group deaths, that might help tease out what's going on.
Bartram, I think your method is too generous to the injections. The categorization of data by time relative to shot suggests the undercounting of deaths relative to unvaxxed. I'm not sure how one avoids being counted repeatedly over time as one progresses from under three weeks past shot one, to over three weeks, to getting shot two, etc.
Also, segmenting the injected categories, even if each subject is somehow only counted once, the vax effect is additive. I can only be unvaxxed once, but deaths in each category still count as a death in someone who has gotten a shot. Vax efficacy rates gets their special 5-week post first shot carve-out where we are told not to expect protection from Covid, but once injections have commenced, non-covid deaths are one bucket of vax safety, no grace periods. Only difference is whether the most danger is after first jab or subsequent jabs.
Deaths rates are based on person-years spent inside the given category, so none of the vax status windows apply a discount to each other. For younger age groups, the final person-years for 2nd dosed over 21 days ago are thus quite low in the end (20-24 year olds 359,959 person-years in 2d>21 vs 1,253,977 person-years in unvaxxed for example).
My network wifi is TheVaccineKills. My neighbors in my building may not like it, but they can't say they weren't warned.
I feel a WiFi network name change coming on...
Excellent analysis - but I think you were a bit minimalist on describing your methods. The ONS report doesn't show 5 year age groups and plots out age-stratified results by month. I eventually found Table 9 in the spreadsheet in section six, and then verified that it was the source for your graph by running the math.
The report's suggestion that "prioritisation of the clinically vulnerable" accounts for this effect is not totally far-fetched. If there was a monthly breakdown of the 5 year age group deaths, that might help tease out what's going on.
Bartram, I think your method is too generous to the injections. The categorization of data by time relative to shot suggests the undercounting of deaths relative to unvaxxed. I'm not sure how one avoids being counted repeatedly over time as one progresses from under three weeks past shot one, to over three weeks, to getting shot two, etc.
Also, segmenting the injected categories, even if each subject is somehow only counted once, the vax effect is additive. I can only be unvaxxed once, but deaths in each category still count as a death in someone who has gotten a shot. Vax efficacy rates gets their special 5-week post first shot carve-out where we are told not to expect protection from Covid, but once injections have commenced, non-covid deaths are one bucket of vax safety, no grace periods. Only difference is whether the most danger is after first jab or subsequent jabs.
Deaths rates are based on person-years spent inside the given category, so none of the vax status windows apply a discount to each other. For younger age groups, the final person-years for 2nd dosed over 21 days ago are thus quite low in the end (20-24 year olds 359,959 person-years in 2d>21 vs 1,253,977 person-years in unvaxxed for example).