Summary: It has been noted elsewhere that the deaths by vaccination status data recently published by the Office for National Statistics is sensitive to a delay between the date of death and the date for the relevant vaccination numbers used to compute the deaths per number vaccinated. In this post I note that the deaths per number vaccinated computation should use the number vaccinated at the point of infection, not at the point of death, and consider that our understanding of covid disease progression suggests that we should use a delay of approximately three weeks for the calculation of deaths per number vaccinated. Analysis of the results of this adjustment to the data suggest that the vaccines are considerably less effective at protecting against death than a simple analysis of official figures suggest. The analysis also suggests that there is an increased risk of death from covid in the period immediately after vaccination, compared with the unvaccinated. As a result of this analysis it is recommended that:
" period of significantly increased risk from covid over the weeks following vaccination"
Interesting that this concurs with several observational studies that came out from a few countries. Denmark and Scotland comes to mind but i would need to look. And we have solid biological plausibility for that.
Also, my own clinical observations are in line with what you said: deaths with rather than from are about a 1/3 to 1/2. Very hard to say for sure of course. When someone hits their head and dies but is swabbed anyway and called Covid 19 death that is easy. When someone dies in teh shower of an MI and is swabbed and called Covid 19 death that is a bit harder.
The number of 'classic" Covid 19 pneumonia deaths I have seen in less than 50%.
"With SARS-CoV-2" false positive deaths must surely dominate after week 10 or so. More important given where the bell curve of deaths is (right over January), "deaths efficacy" shouldn't be expected to be that impressive inside the first four weeks, so the pseudo-vaccine doesn't really have much of a chance to make up for the late start unless you extend the window past week 20. I agree that under a hypothetical where you want to "give out the death jab better," some type of wave-avoidance or "hunker down for 5 weeks advice" is a theoretically good compensation for the slow onset of the (short-lived) infection efficacy.
Regarding the delay-adjustment - Deaths among the Covid-vaccinated could obviously have a shorter delay, especially if an AE / + false positive signal is driving "next day" deaths. Scoring "next day" deaths against a 3 week-old denominator is obviously not going to be very favorable. (And I'm leery of the current "understanding" of the disease course since it has been so seldom revisited after spring 2020.)
Regarding the evolution of C19 mortality figures in 2020 for Germany, I think I have found serious statistical proof that nearly all C19 victims have died "with" Covid. And my hypothesis does well in explaining some otherwise misterious observations in this "pandemic", too, like the nearly magical resilience of the youngest. Bartram, would you be so kind to take a short look at my findings and make a comment about plausibility? I'm pretty sure that this figures apply to other countries as well (sorry for posting this on gettr, but I was banned permanently from Twitter). Please take notice of the two follow-up "replies" on this page below, too.
Great Explanation, Thank you. If you do not mind, I'd like to use your graphics in an German post on my web-site. With proper reference to your post of cause.
You made a perfect example about the obstacles to report correct analysis results in current, so-called pandemic. And UK is heaven in regards to data! All cause mortality by vaccination status! I suppose we will never see such Data for Germany.
" period of significantly increased risk from covid over the weeks following vaccination"
Interesting that this concurs with several observational studies that came out from a few countries. Denmark and Scotland comes to mind but i would need to look. And we have solid biological plausibility for that.
Also, my own clinical observations are in line with what you said: deaths with rather than from are about a 1/3 to 1/2. Very hard to say for sure of course. When someone hits their head and dies but is swabbed anyway and called Covid 19 death that is easy. When someone dies in teh shower of an MI and is swabbed and called Covid 19 death that is a bit harder.
The number of 'classic" Covid 19 pneumonia deaths I have seen in less than 50%.
"With SARS-CoV-2" false positive deaths must surely dominate after week 10 or so. More important given where the bell curve of deaths is (right over January), "deaths efficacy" shouldn't be expected to be that impressive inside the first four weeks, so the pseudo-vaccine doesn't really have much of a chance to make up for the late start unless you extend the window past week 20. I agree that under a hypothetical where you want to "give out the death jab better," some type of wave-avoidance or "hunker down for 5 weeks advice" is a theoretically good compensation for the slow onset of the (short-lived) infection efficacy.
Regarding the delay-adjustment - Deaths among the Covid-vaccinated could obviously have a shorter delay, especially if an AE / + false positive signal is driving "next day" deaths. Scoring "next day" deaths against a 3 week-old denominator is obviously not going to be very favorable. (And I'm leery of the current "understanding" of the disease course since it has been so seldom revisited after spring 2020.)
Regarding the evolution of C19 mortality figures in 2020 for Germany, I think I have found serious statistical proof that nearly all C19 victims have died "with" Covid. And my hypothesis does well in explaining some otherwise misterious observations in this "pandemic", too, like the nearly magical resilience of the youngest. Bartram, would you be so kind to take a short look at my findings and make a comment about plausibility? I'm pretty sure that this figures apply to other countries as well (sorry for posting this on gettr, but I was banned permanently from Twitter). Please take notice of the two follow-up "replies" on this page below, too.
https://www.gettr.com/post/prvsmc9e20
Great Explanation, Thank you. If you do not mind, I'd like to use your graphics in an German post on my web-site. With proper reference to your post of cause.
You made a perfect example about the obstacles to report correct analysis results in current, so-called pandemic. And UK is heaven in regards to data! All cause mortality by vaccination status! I suppose we will never see such Data for Germany.
Well done. I would like to interview you on #UnbreakingScience soon.