The importance of the delay between infection…

Summary: It has been noted elsewhere that the deaths by vaccination status data recently published by the Office for National Statistics is sensitive to a delay between the date of death and the date for the relevant vaccination numbers used to compute the deaths per number vaccinated. In this post I note that the deaths per number vaccinated computation should use the number vaccinated at the point of infection, not at the point of death, and consider that our understanding of covid disease progression suggests that we should use a delay of approximately three weeks for the calculation of deaths per number vaccinated. Analysis of the results of this adjustment to the data suggest that the vaccines are considerably less effective at protecting against death than a simple analysis of official figures suggest. The analysis also suggests that there is an increased risk of death from covid in the period immediately after vaccination, compared with the unvaccinated. As a result of this analysis it is recommended that:

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