Here in the DC area (USA) people are getting infected left and right. I personally know of numerous people infected in the past few weeks. However, the official case numbers are at medium levels. This is because few people are getting PCR tested anymore. People are using home tests or not testing at all. It makes it pretty hard to track infection waves here due to the lack of reporting.
Short-term reinfections (i.e. within 90 days of each other) USED to be quite rare to virtually nonexistent. But then came the jabs, which then collided with a variant that the jabs just happened to be a magnet for, and the rest is history....
Apart from the scary fact that Denmark keeps the actual DNA/RNA data for every (government done) PCR test on file, it does look pretty good. The only thing is that this is also around the time home tests started to get common, and some people may not have bothered to retest using PCR.
The 90 days is obviously just a political number that somewhere was made up in the health establishment apparatus, but it seems to be pretty reasonable that one does not immediately get reinfected. That is the expectation for almost any disease.
Natural immunity pre-omicron was in virtually every study above 90% for months after infection, and I have seen no evidence this is different with Omicron. The Delta-Omicron transition from lung/lower respiratory to upper-respiratory illness caused an obvious reset in infections, but that should be a one-time thing.
The issue is also how to define infected. Traditionally it would be some test *with* symptoms. But as the symptoms are so common and PCR tests and some others just means 're-exposed' that won't work. You sneeze and cough for random illness X and test positive for covid because you were too close at the bus-stop to someone. And the health establishment definition of illness is just test positive, which means even less.
We could define it as PCR (or some other test) with a minimum viral load, but no such studies exist for many practical and ethical reasons. The ethical, the Danish managed to get around, so I think this is likely as close as we'll ever get to an estimate.
At least before Fall. If many people get reinfected with being sick, without some serious sudden one-off mutations we may conclude covid will become like flu and its natural genetic drift will suffice. But if not, and if covid has no animal reservoirs it may actually die out in a few years
Who are all these people who keep being infected with covid? My daughter had it in the summer of 2020 (back when everyone was reporting everyone else so she had to get tested). It was a nasty cold and she moped about for a week (with her boyfriend who failed to catch it from her). She hasn't had so much as a sniffle since then and has been working in London throughout. She is unvaccinated. My cousin and her husband didn't catch it in 2020. They waited until the vaccinations started and haven't stopped catching it since (3 jabs in and almost continuous covid). Their immuno-compromised son (also well jabbed) has failed to catch it from them. To my non-scientific brain all of this seems almost made-up. Who are these people who are continually testing and reporting themselves? Are they actually ill? Very confusing!
Note that ZOE data does NOT in any way concern itself with reinfections. It answers only one question: how many people in the UK are having Covid "right now". It does not matter if that covid in any given individual is a reinfection, rebound of an existing infection, continuous infection, first infection or whatever.
The infections trigger clotting as part of the immune response. Sometimes, clots protect the volume with some of the infection. As the body recovers clots are dissolved and there is 'reinfection'.
Taking proteases, enzymes that dissolve clots, will reduce the immune response and stop reinfection.
The immune response is not designed to preserve an individual... it is there to preserve the DNA of many species. The immune response will often kill, to protect.
Can the Zoe model can be evaluated against actual number of positive tests and test positivity rates to assess whether its predicted trends are accurate? This pandemic is already a horror show of trying to manipulate data to fit predictive models.
"My guess is that we’ll see around 125,000 new cases a day" so you guys do enjoy wasting resources using the tool of the scam... the PCR kit and keeping the COVIDIUS CIRCUS TENT up and running?!
Here in the DC area (USA) people are getting infected left and right. I personally know of numerous people infected in the past few weeks. However, the official case numbers are at medium levels. This is because few people are getting PCR tested anymore. People are using home tests or not testing at all. It makes it pretty hard to track infection waves here due to the lack of reporting.
Australia followed the "no reinfection exists within 90 days" dogma for a while... they changed the reinfection period to be 28 days recently https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20220712_00.aspx
Short-term reinfections (i.e. within 90 days of each other) USED to be quite rare to virtually nonexistent. But then came the jabs, which then collided with a variant that the jabs just happened to be a magnet for, and the rest is history....
What about this study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.02.19.22271112v1
Apart from the scary fact that Denmark keeps the actual DNA/RNA data for every (government done) PCR test on file, it does look pretty good. The only thing is that this is also around the time home tests started to get common, and some people may not have bothered to retest using PCR.
The 90 days is obviously just a political number that somewhere was made up in the health establishment apparatus, but it seems to be pretty reasonable that one does not immediately get reinfected. That is the expectation for almost any disease.
Natural immunity pre-omicron was in virtually every study above 90% for months after infection, and I have seen no evidence this is different with Omicron. The Delta-Omicron transition from lung/lower respiratory to upper-respiratory illness caused an obvious reset in infections, but that should be a one-time thing.
The issue is also how to define infected. Traditionally it would be some test *with* symptoms. But as the symptoms are so common and PCR tests and some others just means 're-exposed' that won't work. You sneeze and cough for random illness X and test positive for covid because you were too close at the bus-stop to someone. And the health establishment definition of illness is just test positive, which means even less.
We could define it as PCR (or some other test) with a minimum viral load, but no such studies exist for many practical and ethical reasons. The ethical, the Danish managed to get around, so I think this is likely as close as we'll ever get to an estimate.
At least before Fall. If many people get reinfected with being sick, without some serious sudden one-off mutations we may conclude covid will become like flu and its natural genetic drift will suffice. But if not, and if covid has no animal reservoirs it may actually die out in a few years
Thank you for your great work as usual. Any stats anywhere on the unvaccinated? I jest 😏
Who are all these people who keep being infected with covid? My daughter had it in the summer of 2020 (back when everyone was reporting everyone else so she had to get tested). It was a nasty cold and she moped about for a week (with her boyfriend who failed to catch it from her). She hasn't had so much as a sniffle since then and has been working in London throughout. She is unvaccinated. My cousin and her husband didn't catch it in 2020. They waited until the vaccinations started and haven't stopped catching it since (3 jabs in and almost continuous covid). Their immuno-compromised son (also well jabbed) has failed to catch it from them. To my non-scientific brain all of this seems almost made-up. Who are these people who are continually testing and reporting themselves? Are they actually ill? Very confusing!
Good point about reinfections, I never thought about that.
Very interesting!!!
Note that ZOE data does NOT in any way concern itself with reinfections. It answers only one question: how many people in the UK are having Covid "right now". It does not matter if that covid in any given individual is a reinfection, rebound of an existing infection, continuous infection, first infection or whatever.
The infections trigger clotting as part of the immune response. Sometimes, clots protect the volume with some of the infection. As the body recovers clots are dissolved and there is 'reinfection'.
Taking proteases, enzymes that dissolve clots, will reduce the immune response and stop reinfection.
The immune response is not designed to preserve an individual... it is there to preserve the DNA of many species. The immune response will often kill, to protect.
Curiouser and curiouser! Thanks for the great insight!
Can the Zoe model can be evaluated against actual number of positive tests and test positivity rates to assess whether its predicted trends are accurate? This pandemic is already a horror show of trying to manipulate data to fit predictive models.
"My guess is that we’ll see around 125,000 new cases a day" so you guys do enjoy wasting resources using the tool of the scam... the PCR kit and keeping the COVIDIUS CIRCUS TENT up and running?!
Good for you!