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Kirsten's avatar

As I understand it, we can count on mutations with this virus, so it seems we'll be riding this ride for a long time. Perhaps similar to the flu but more frequent than yearly.

It would be interesting if no new variants emerged and case numbers stayed the same, perhaps pointing to the prevalence of immune system dysfunction and/or low white blood cell counts in those vaccinated. I talked to someone yesterday who got a booster months ago. He recently got blood work done because he's on an injection to lower cholesterol (I'm not sure if the vaccine affects cholesterol, he did attributed early thyroid trouble to his first vaccine). His white blood cell count is low. He's attributing it to the cholesterol medication. 😐

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Bartram's avatar

All viruses mutate all the time.

We talk of covid mutations because:

Humans are a host that it has only recently happened upon -- it isn't optimised for humans yet and so a given mutation might have more chance of having a selected advantage

We vaccinated against the most mutable* part of the virus, the spike protein. Thus there are going to be lots of mutations in the spike protein as mutations in spike are more likely to happen upon immune escape.

We're looking very hard for mutations in covid.

IMO mutations are much less important for covid than we're being told -- as far as our authorities are concerned it is the variants that drive each outbreak -- it is more likely that outbreaks come when covid is ready (to do with short term immune responses in the population following each infectious wave), and whichever variant is most common at that time is what will form the wave.

* this means that mutations in the spike protein are more likely to result in a viable virus. Mutations are just as likely elsewhere in the RNA of the virus, but elsewhere it is more likely that the mutation would result in the virus being non-viable, ie, that particular mutation dies out before it can get anywhere

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Kirsten's avatar

What do you mean by this... "it is more likely that outbreaks come when covid is ready".

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Bartram's avatar

Sorry -- bad use of language. The point I was trying to make was that covid comes in waves, with each wave coming when 'something happens' that makes the population ready for the next wave. Really I should have said 'outbreaks come when the population's immunity is ready for it'.

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dontknow's avatar

I am of the opinion that the jab affects your immune system and therefore whatever your genetic predisposition is for an illness or condition it affects it adversely. This will enable governments to dodge the blame bullet. Maybe, they don’t want to frighten “the horses”- which I sort of understand but then you wouldn’t keep pushing the boosters would you? I note there is some backing off from this, not constant propaganda. But now people are of course demanding it themselves because they have had two years of propaganda . The news now seems to be about “ long Covid” here in New Zealand ( now called Aotearoa by our socialist government), and well you can just about blame “ long Covid” for anything…

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Bartram's avatar

It is looking likely that the jabs have a complex impact on our immune systems, yes.

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Kirsten's avatar

Right, I agree with you. And some some people think asymptomatic infection is a thing (pre-symptomatic yes, asymptomatic no), any illness could be attributed to asymptomatic covid, then prolonged ill health as an episode of long covid.

So you think everyone who got the injection has immune dysregulation? I'm wondering how common it is, and if some age groups or people with low health status are more affected. 🤔

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dontknow's avatar

I certainly hope not as I have adult children who were coerced into being vaccinated, one pregnant! I think we all hope that’s not the case. Try as I might I can’t understand why people would continue to queue up for a drug that clearly doesn’t work and has been tested for such a short period of time for an illness with very low morbidity. The more the government pushed with their paid off media here in NZ, the more I felt this isn’t right…As governments are involved I’m not sure we will ever get the truth. Many things impact our health and immune response and it is dynamic for everyone- so how do you assess the impact of something that could be so wide ranging. I think the only way is excess mortality comparisons, autoimmune comparisons and over a long time frame but that will only work for vaxxed populations verses unvaxxed populations. Someone with a lot of financial and political clout needs to fund this- is there anyone left?Small dispersed voices I’m not so sure, but thank goodness that dedicated people ARE at least trying. Thanks Bartram!

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Bartram's avatar

Youngsters will probably be okay -- they've got enough immune health in reserve to cope with the potential situation of vaccine mediated immune dysregulation.

IMO the problem will be most visible in premature immunosenescence (immune aging) in those aged 50ish to 70ish.

We might see an uptick (upsurge) in autoimmune conditions in the young, but this isn't clear yet.

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Shy Boy's avatar

The SIR model is what they call a "spherical cow". Mathematically elegant, but completely unrealistic. It can't even account for seasonality, one of the most basic characteristics of influenza-like illness. It doesn't take into account so many factors, I find it difficult to believe that credible epidemiologists would be using it without heavy hypothesis augmentation and supplemental data sources.

Of course scientific "credibility" is the most thoroughly debased currency still circulating at present. Sigh.

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Igor Chudov's avatar

Your intuition was spot on! Three weeks later the ZOE curve is confidently marching upwards.

(so do hospitalizations on England)

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voza0db's avatar

"Covid is now over "

I do know a very simple way of ending Covid... just stop using PCR kits or LFT. The results of these experiments means nothing.

And we can go back to the good old days were NOBODY cared about cold/flu/pneumonia!

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Bleak's avatar

Hi, Bartram, I would like to know your academic credentials because you state in The Daily Sceptic that you are "an ex-academic and senior government scientist" as far your articles there are concerned. Could you provide us some insightful data about your background? Thanks.

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May 14, 2022
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Bartram's avatar

Cases will remain high, hospitalisations from (with) covid will remain controlled, and non-covid hospitalisations will go through the roof.

Did you see the article I wrote for DailySceptic on 5x higher emergency admissions for not-covid in the vaccinated? https://dailysceptic.org/2022/05/07/vaccinated-hospitalised-for-non-covid-reasons-at-five-times-the-rate-of-the-unvaccinated-u-k-government-data-show/

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