I agree somewhat with your analysis of the Omicron data, although I suspect the "super cold" we were treated to in late fall may have been early signs of Omicron.
The question I have, given the emergence of data from Denmark (roughly 60% fewer hospital admissions and indeed a shorter stay for those in hospital) and the (granted, summer) evidence from SA that this is less virulent, what do you think will be causing the brutality of a late January peak?
The high case numbers themselves mean little, and the NHS has coped with all other issues so far - if the staff weren't forced to isolate after contact with Omicron (negating their vaccine status, rendering the whole freedom via vaccine argument useless) we wouldn't see any issue at all in the healthcare system, would we?
My worry about the Omicron wave is based on sheer numbers. I fear the vaccines now have negative VE and we'll see far more cases than in previous waves (I predict any positive effect of the boosters will wane within 60 days or so of data of booster). Even though Omicron looks to be less likely to result in hospitalisation/death, the very high case numbers will overwhelm the health services.
Even worse, I believe that health services around the world are being challenged by relatively high numbers of illness related to the vaccinations. While these serious side-effects remain lowish, the fact that they vaccinated everyone within such a short time period is causing serious problems.
Fair, I suspected as much, drained resources working on other things and you leave yourself short to contend with even low numbers of relatively treatable illness. Thanks for replying :)
Anecdotally, everyone I know who has had covid in the last month or so has been double or even triple vaccinated. They're al relatively young so not troubled the health service but I suppose your theory will ring true as Neg VE is more prevalent by those age range topped up by boosters - I would be shocked if the Real World Data show that the vaccine efficiency (I like your term) is boosted back up to a positive number. I would be keen to see some data which shows clearly the recurrence of disease in vaxxed vs natural immunity + vax and then pure natural immunity,
Yes. As we go further into winter the impact of the disease will be greater. It could well be argued that we'd be better off with our wave now. However, I don't think that social control biocontrol measures (lockdown) work very well except where everyone is stopped from doing anything -- each covid wave comes when it wants to and our puny efforts to control it don't make much difference in the end.
shows 14 deaths (that's total, but most have been in recent days), whereas according to official data only 2-3(!) weeks ago there were only a few hundered Omicron cases in the UK. This gives a IFR of around 5% (if you choose 3 weeks it is 20%), but I suggest that in reality there were far more Omicron cases in the country and it is just that no-one was getting tested for it because their symptoms were 'wrong'.
Hi,
I agree somewhat with your analysis of the Omicron data, although I suspect the "super cold" we were treated to in late fall may have been early signs of Omicron.
The question I have, given the emergence of data from Denmark (roughly 60% fewer hospital admissions and indeed a shorter stay for those in hospital) and the (granted, summer) evidence from SA that this is less virulent, what do you think will be causing the brutality of a late January peak?
The high case numbers themselves mean little, and the NHS has coped with all other issues so far - if the staff weren't forced to isolate after contact with Omicron (negating their vaccine status, rendering the whole freedom via vaccine argument useless) we wouldn't see any issue at all in the healthcare system, would we?
My worry about the Omicron wave is based on sheer numbers. I fear the vaccines now have negative VE and we'll see far more cases than in previous waves (I predict any positive effect of the boosters will wane within 60 days or so of data of booster). Even though Omicron looks to be less likely to result in hospitalisation/death, the very high case numbers will overwhelm the health services.
Even worse, I believe that health services around the world are being challenged by relatively high numbers of illness related to the vaccinations. While these serious side-effects remain lowish, the fact that they vaccinated everyone within such a short time period is causing serious problems.
Fair, I suspected as much, drained resources working on other things and you leave yourself short to contend with even low numbers of relatively treatable illness. Thanks for replying :)
Anecdotally, everyone I know who has had covid in the last month or so has been double or even triple vaccinated. They're al relatively young so not troubled the health service but I suppose your theory will ring true as Neg VE is more prevalent by those age range topped up by boosters - I would be shocked if the Real World Data show that the vaccine efficiency (I like your term) is boosted back up to a positive number. I would be keen to see some data which shows clearly the recurrence of disease in vaxxed vs natural immunity + vax and then pure natural immunity,
Yes. As we go further into winter the impact of the disease will be greater. It could well be argued that we'd be better off with our wave now. However, I don't think that social control biocontrol measures (lockdown) work very well except where everyone is stopped from doing anything -- each covid wave comes when it wants to and our puny efforts to control it don't make much difference in the end.
The 5% CFR comes from current data. As it takes 3 weeks from infection to death we have to compare today's deaths with cases 3 weeks ago. The most recent data for Omicron: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042543/20211220_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
shows 14 deaths (that's total, but most have been in recent days), whereas according to official data only 2-3(!) weeks ago there were only a few hundered Omicron cases in the UK. This gives a IFR of around 5% (if you choose 3 weeks it is 20%), but I suggest that in reality there were far more Omicron cases in the country and it is just that no-one was getting tested for it because their symptoms were 'wrong'.