I love this article. You prepared it well and your thinking is amazing.
But I would like to say that "additional deaths between days 28-60 post-Covid", in the vaccinated, may be due to their general propensity to die, called excess mortality.
In other words, it really was not Covid at all that killed (most of) them in days 28-60. It was being sickly and unwell due to having been vaccinated.
Good article, though I must take issue with one statement.
"healthcare staff are professionals and would be unwilling to introduce biases into their care"
Many hospitals / doctors have disproven that fact by actively blockingtreatment with ivermectin and HCQ and either sacking or discrediting any doctor who dares to disagree with the dangerous policies in use.
That's an important point. The suppression of use of generic therapeutics is very worrying. I laughed (in horror) when I heard the BBC gushing about the news that Pfizer's therapeutic had been approved after a single short trial with rather few participants and a very worrying early cancellation of one half of the study arm (so that inconvenient results could be ignored)... when multiple studies showing Ivermectin to be very likely to be protective were ignored, even though it is a cheap generic with vast evidence showing it to be a rather safe drug to take.
Vitamin D is the same -- it is now 5 months since the end of the Cornavit trial -- where are the results, Adrian Martineau?
I'll have a look -- in general the US data is rather poor quality, but some states have made better information available so it would probably be at this level.
Great analysis/article. Is it possible some of the delayed deaths in vaccinated are secondary to the vaccine itself? Vaccine-related death (adverse event)?
There is a possibility that this is what is happening.
I note that the largest effect is seen in the younger age groups, many of whom will have had their second dose in the time period, and those aged 80+, who have had their boosters in the time period. Ie, a post-vaccination effect is possible.
The least significant effect was seen for those aged 40-70, who will have had their second dose before the sample period (Sept/Oct '21) but will have had their booster (if at all) after the period. Ie, there's no recent vaccination to cause this effect.
I suspect that there will be periods of high risk of clot-related conditions after each covid wave. As it will become endemic soon this means 'once to twice a year forever'. This is because the clots very likely result from anti-spike-antibody / PF4 complexes and each individual will see a rise in anti-spike antibodies every time they're challenged with covid (OAS). It is possible that this could also happen after every coronavirus (cold) infection.
If we're lucky the anti-spike antibodies will fade away very quickly. That said, the eagerness to take boosters of the vaccine is hindering this process.
Don't be surprised if there are higher hospitalisation/death rates in the unvaccinated over the next 2 weeks -- It looks like there's a delay between infection and onset of symptoms in the vaccinated. I expect some alarming statistics by Christmas (if we're lucky Omicron will have very low hospitalisation rates and Christmas will be mild).
"I think this is highly unlikely — healthcare staff are professionals and would be unwilling to introduce biases into their care." While i agree that they are less likely to do so overtly, I can assure you that these biases have many ways of creeping in and i have witnessed them first hand
Thanks for the comment. I do worry about this, but am really trying not to. The hatred of those pro-vaccine to those who don't have the faith that all the vaccine risks will be fine in the end is extraordinary. This isn't reciprocated -- I know of no vaccine-sceptics who wish ill upon the vaccinated (maybe those high up who are responsible for this madness). This has been made even worse by the spreading of scientific nonsense like 'the unvaccinated make escape variants' (not true for a leaky vaccine, eg, see Gandon et al in Nature 414), the unvaccinated are filling up the hospitals (based on data from early summer when the majority were unvaccinated, and, anyway, the hospitals are full but not with covid patients -- something else is making people ill), the unvaccinated are spreading disease (the vaccinated appear to have greater risk of being infected and thus contagious and there are signs that they're more likely to be a superspreader -- I've got an article on this waiting to be finished). Yet the media allow this misinformation to be spread around and create societal problems.
"So, why might this be occurring? I can think of a few potential reasons:"
You've left out vaccine efficacy. If the vaccines do, in fact, reduce deaths after infection, then the "benchmark" of 28-day deaths is going to be closer to normal 28-day deaths for a given age group. Lower benchmark means proportionately "higher" day 29-60 deaths as measured against the benchmark.
The unvaccinated have a higher day 28 benchmark, and day 29-60 deaths are naturally less "high" compared to their benchmark. This is further important because it could be disguising an AE signal from first-doses after infection. For example, maybe that is why the 40s+unvaccinated are having extra deaths after day 29 as measured by what should be a pretty forgiving benchmark of day 1-28 deaths. I tried to look up UK guidance for how long to wait after infection before injection and couldn't find any...
I agree with your point 3 suggestion. Residual mucosal anti-spike antibodies competing with innate immunity could prolong infection. I think this is probably a rare outcome. The charts for currently hospitalized + vaccinated in the Israel dashboard over the summer didn't appear to show any "backlog" in clearing vaccinated people out.
I love this article. You prepared it well and your thinking is amazing.
But I would like to say that "additional deaths between days 28-60 post-Covid", in the vaccinated, may be due to their general propensity to die, called excess mortality.
In other words, it really was not Covid at all that killed (most of) them in days 28-60. It was being sickly and unwell due to having been vaccinated.
Yes. It is possible. Really we need to see stats for 60-90 days etc, but those data aren't forthcoming.
Could be a bit of both.
Good article, though I must take issue with one statement.
"healthcare staff are professionals and would be unwilling to introduce biases into their care"
Many hospitals / doctors have disproven that fact by actively blockingtreatment with ivermectin and HCQ and either sacking or discrediting any doctor who dares to disagree with the dangerous policies in use.
That's an important point. The suppression of use of generic therapeutics is very worrying. I laughed (in horror) when I heard the BBC gushing about the news that Pfizer's therapeutic had been approved after a single short trial with rather few participants and a very worrying early cancellation of one half of the study arm (so that inconvenient results could be ignored)... when multiple studies showing Ivermectin to be very likely to be protective were ignored, even though it is a cheap generic with vast evidence showing it to be a rather safe drug to take.
Vitamin D is the same -- it is now 5 months since the end of the Cornavit trial -- where are the results, Adrian Martineau?
Do you have a similar study for the US numbers? If not, could you put one together?
I'll have a look -- in general the US data is rather poor quality, but some states have made better information available so it would probably be at this level.
Thank you. Looking forward to it!
Great analysis/article. Is it possible some of the delayed deaths in vaccinated are secondary to the vaccine itself? Vaccine-related death (adverse event)?
There is a possibility that this is what is happening.
I note that the largest effect is seen in the younger age groups, many of whom will have had their second dose in the time period, and those aged 80+, who have had their boosters in the time period. Ie, a post-vaccination effect is possible.
The least significant effect was seen for those aged 40-70, who will have had their second dose before the sample period (Sept/Oct '21) but will have had their booster (if at all) after the period. Ie, there's no recent vaccination to cause this effect.
Is it possible that some vaccine related adverse events that can cause death (ie clots) can occur anytime after a vaccine. Even months to years.
I suspect that there will be periods of high risk of clot-related conditions after each covid wave. As it will become endemic soon this means 'once to twice a year forever'. This is because the clots very likely result from anti-spike-antibody / PF4 complexes and each individual will see a rise in anti-spike antibodies every time they're challenged with covid (OAS). It is possible that this could also happen after every coronavirus (cold) infection.
If we're lucky the anti-spike antibodies will fade away very quickly. That said, the eagerness to take boosters of the vaccine is hindering this process.
Got it. Thanks
Are you surprised that >80% of covid hospitalizations and deaths in UK last month are in the vaccinated?
No. It is to be expected.
Don't be surprised if there are higher hospitalisation/death rates in the unvaccinated over the next 2 weeks -- It looks like there's a delay between infection and onset of symptoms in the vaccinated. I expect some alarming statistics by Christmas (if we're lucky Omicron will have very low hospitalisation rates and Christmas will be mild).
Yep the surges are coming soon. Massachusetts now has 1100 hospitalizations. Almost 40% are vaccinated.
"I think this is highly unlikely — healthcare staff are professionals and would be unwilling to introduce biases into their care." While i agree that they are less likely to do so overtly, I can assure you that these biases have many ways of creeping in and i have witnessed them first hand
Thanks for the comment. I do worry about this, but am really trying not to. The hatred of those pro-vaccine to those who don't have the faith that all the vaccine risks will be fine in the end is extraordinary. This isn't reciprocated -- I know of no vaccine-sceptics who wish ill upon the vaccinated (maybe those high up who are responsible for this madness). This has been made even worse by the spreading of scientific nonsense like 'the unvaccinated make escape variants' (not true for a leaky vaccine, eg, see Gandon et al in Nature 414), the unvaccinated are filling up the hospitals (based on data from early summer when the majority were unvaccinated, and, anyway, the hospitals are full but not with covid patients -- something else is making people ill), the unvaccinated are spreading disease (the vaccinated appear to have greater risk of being infected and thus contagious and there are signs that they're more likely to be a superspreader -- I've got an article on this waiting to be finished). Yet the media allow this misinformation to be spread around and create societal problems.
"So, why might this be occurring? I can think of a few potential reasons:"
You've left out vaccine efficacy. If the vaccines do, in fact, reduce deaths after infection, then the "benchmark" of 28-day deaths is going to be closer to normal 28-day deaths for a given age group. Lower benchmark means proportionately "higher" day 29-60 deaths as measured against the benchmark.
The unvaccinated have a higher day 28 benchmark, and day 29-60 deaths are naturally less "high" compared to their benchmark. This is further important because it could be disguising an AE signal from first-doses after infection. For example, maybe that is why the 40s+unvaccinated are having extra deaths after day 29 as measured by what should be a pretty forgiving benchmark of day 1-28 deaths. I tried to look up UK guidance for how long to wait after infection before injection and couldn't find any...
I agree with your point 3 suggestion. Residual mucosal anti-spike antibodies competing with innate immunity could prolong infection. I think this is probably a rare outcome. The charts for currently hospitalized + vaccinated in the Israel dashboard over the summer didn't appear to show any "backlog" in clearing vaccinated people out.
All this data is pure rubbish... Use the famous CR7 PCR method and there will never be another "positive" PCR kit result!
And without a "positive" PCR no more need for us to keep pretending that Pneumonia is something new and pandemic.
Enjoy your posts. On the topic of timing of vaccinations and deaths, thought you may be be interested... https://inumero.substack.com/p/what-will-be-the-steady-state-vaccine?r=tv61s&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web