Way back on the 27th December I made a prediction on how New Zealand was on the cusp of a new epidemic wave:
Finally, a theory is no good without a prediction — anyone can describe the past… I think New Zealand hasn’t finished a set of short-interval waves. The peak of the second wave was 75 days after the peak of the first; I predict a new wave is imminent, with a peak 50-75 days after the second peak — that is, around mid to late January. In order to peak by that time this predicted new wave will need to start in the next 10 days or so.
How did I get on?
This is the current state of covid cases in New Zealand:
Well, we’re not at the peak of the wave yet, but I don’t think I was too far off — we’re now 80 days since the peak of the previous wave in mid November. The current epidemic wave appeared to start in mid January, which makes its start around 2 weeks after my prediction which suggests that the wave has about two weeks left to run. Looking at the rate of climb in cases it should peak at around 750 cases per day during the last week of February, but New Zealand is a bit odd in that the data above is still only coming from the Auckland and the surrounding regions; it is very likely that the current epidemic wave is spreading to other areas in New Zealand and the current epidemic wave might be somewhat larger than this and take longer to peak. On the other hand, there is a possibility that this epidemic wave is the one that will seed the next epidemic wave, in which case New Zealand will cry ‘success!’ with a relatively minor wave this month, only to be hit hard with their next wave, due in June/July.
Note that New Zealand is interesting because there is very little natural immunity to Covid in the country, but very high vaccination levels; the progression of the disease in the country will be informative.
Update on New Zealand data
The vaccination of those 18+ in Auckland is over 95%. Beyond Auckland it is 93%. Our narcissistic PM has stoked irrational fear and used it to drive the masses to vaccination stations. While we have some environmental advantages like low density living, and high UV due to thin ozone coverage, we also have try tinder in the form of high rates of obesity in Maori & pacific island ethnicities and low all-population seroprevalence on account of operating like a hermit kingdom for two years.
My observations as a resident of Auckland, is that (as noted by our MSM) testing and scanning rates dropped significantly this month. The most hilarious part was "expert" Michael Baker expressing surprise. Another example of why nation wide public health measures should not be left exclusively to "science experts". They have no understanding of trade offs or behavioral drivers. I remain firmly of the belief that the maniacal new isolation policies especially have been implemented to DRIVE non compliance. They know the severe outcomes of Omicron have been very low in every country that reports, so what better way to show "success" than to have cases remain lowish relatively. All they need to do is to keep the massive propaganda spend going along with Baker and his bedfellows Wiles, Jackson and Hendy, and the vast majority here are obsessed with fear. Many folk, especially in our neurotic capital city, now sporting double masking (which was part of the Omicron propaganda program - including mandatory for all kids in schools 8yr old and up). Booster rates are comparatively high (although probably a fair chunk of the early uptake is mandated sectors - health, education, immigration) but the worst indicator to me is the <12 kids jab rates. Sample of one class, my own 10yr old - teacher got a show of hands, he was one of only 5 not had first jab, only weeks into it being approved.
NZ continues to pursue ideology over science even in the face of many countries we USED to compare to (England, Scandinavia, Israel etc) now either completely removing or partly removing mandates, passes, masking etc. The criminality of doing everything they can to destroy the control group (unjabbed) and avoid any real chance of natural immunity is incalculable. I am really not sure that NZ is redeemable morally, but in terms of health outcomes, we (our authorities) are setting ourselves up for what I believe could be cataclysmic destruction of the general health of the population. It is very depressing to say the least.